The Middle East Channel

Midnight for the SCAF's Cinderella story

In the year since Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) drafted and issued its "Constitutional Declaration," the Egyptian political process has followed no consistent political logic. But it has largely followed the declaration's text, which is leading to some results that should have been expected but largely were not. On one critical and controversial issue -- the sequence of constitution writing and presidential elections -- the document was simply silent. However, on another critical and controversial issue it was definitive: who would write and approve the constitution.

Observers, and even more, some participants, overlooked the significance of the silent and the definitive provisions -- sensibly enough, since they made little sense. But these odd features have now combined to bring the SCAF's control of the process near an end. It is still not clear what political system will emerge (though the players who will make that determination are becoming clearer and beginning to show their hands). But unless the SCAF has the appetite for a second coup, or somehow discovers a way to shoehorn in its puppet as president, the constitutional vehicle that gave the military such political authority will soon turn into a pumpkin. 

First, with regard to sequence, most observers have suspected that the SCAF did have a specific order in mind. They thought that if presidential elections could be postponed, the generals could oversee the writing of the constitution If this is what the SCAF planned, however, it is difficult to explain why the Constitutional Declaration contains detailed provisions for presidential elections - which would be unnecessary if the temporary constitution were to be replaced before elections. Much more likely was that the SCAF was following no clear strategy at all and simply wrote a document that allowed for various possibilities.  

Others feared that electing a president on the basis of the skeletal Constitutional Declaration would return Egypt to the days of an unaccountable presidency. Their fears were reasonable but probably exaggerated -- with the prior election of an assertive parliament and the likely triumph of a non-partisan figure to the presidency, it is unlikely that whoever is elected to that office will be able to rule as did his predecessors.

What was behind this discussion and disagreement regarding sequence was the assumption that there must be logic behind it. But it is now clear that not only was there no logic. In fact, there is also no sequence. The constitutional process and presidential elections are each marching ahead along unrelated timelines. But if there is no logic or sequence driving them, there are some clear effects of having them proceed independently. First, it is difficult to imagine the constitution being completed by May when presidential elections have finally been scheduled. Second, when the president takes office one month later (still with the constitutional drafting likely far from completed), the SCAF loses its position as effective president. It does, of course, retain its position at the head of the armed forces, but even there it loses a measure of its autonomy -- the SCAF may return to having the president chair the body, and the Constitutional Declaration has the president also chairing the National Security Council.

And what of those detailed provisions for drafting the constitution that drew insufficient attention a year ago? The parliament has exclusive authority to elect all one hundred members of the drafting body. There were, to be sure, some attempts by outside actors to shape and even dictate the identity of the drafters, but the most ambitious such attempt -- led by then deputy prime minister Ali al-Silmi last fall  -- was politically fatal to him. That effort also led the Muslim Brotherhood (which was eagerly awaiting its parliamentary role) to call its supporters into the street. The Silmi maneuver has not merely been forgotten but even (in the words of one Brotherhood legal figure I spoke with two months ago) "sent to hell."

And the parliament has taken up its task of naming the drafting body with enthusiasm, deciding that half of the members will come from its own ranks, and the other half from various groups in Egyptian society.

Once the drafters begin their work, they are subject to only two constraints. First, they have six months to complete their task. Second, the people must approve their draft in a referendum within fifteen days. No body has been granted the authority to review their work. The parliament, the president, the cabinet, or the SCAF might make suggestions but there is no provision allowing them to impose their advice on the drafters.

With a stronger parliament, generals in retreat, and round after round after round of competitive and meaningful elections, critical aspects of Egyptian authoritarianism are waning. Still more slights to the despotic system are to come -- the state of emergency expires this summer (and it is politically inconceivable that the parliament would renew it), and the parliament is drafting laws that could liberalize various areas of Egyptian life.

But this is not to say that democracy has broken out. The constitution is not yet written and meaningful oversight of the security services and the military has not come (and, if it does arrive, will likely do so quite gradually). There is no real prospect of a healthy electoral counterweight to the Muslim Brotherhood, save perhaps the Salafis (who continue to say the darndest things). In the Constitutional Declaration, the restraints on the presidency are vaguely defined if at all (until the permanent constitution is written, the office is more likely to encounter political barriers than legal ones). And there are other gaping holes in the interim constitutional order. How long will the president and parliament serve? Until their terms expire or until a permanent constitution is in place?  What happens if the constitutional drafters miss their deadline or have their work rejected? Moreover, who has the authority to answer such questions? Some housekeeping changes have already been necessary in the Constitutional Declaration; who has the authority to make changes after the SCAF's reversion to its purely military role?

Oddly, most of these gaps were perfectly apparent a year ago for anyone who cared to look. But few did. The process appears almost intentionally badly designed. But there is little method to the constitutional madness. The problem is less hidden hands and secret agendas and more so that there are so many hands working at cross-purposes and agendas that, while perfectly open, push the country in different directions.

Many of 2011's revolutionaries voice deep frustrations and some even suggest that no revolution has happened. I disagree. The revolution has made Egypt a country where nobody (or everybody) is in charge. That change is quite significant and, if I can be permitted one personal word, good.

But it sure is taking some getting used to.

Nathan J. Brown is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University and nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

The Middle East Channel

Thousands gather in Cairo to pay tribute to Coptic Pope

Thousands of Coptic Christians have gathered at St. Mark's Cathedral in Cairo to mourn the death of Pope Shenouda III. Shenouda, who had led the Coptic Church since 1971, died on Saturday at the age of 88 from "complications in health and from old age" according to his political advisor, Hany Aziz. Sheikh Ahmed el Tayib, grand imam of al-Azhar, Egypt's highest Islamic authority, mourned Shenouda's passing saying "Egypt has lost one of its rare men at a sensitive moment when it most needs the wisest of its wise -- their expertise and their purity of minds." The Coptic leader was internationally esteemed by many as a "respected and visionary leader," but in recent years had met criticism for his cooperation with ousted dictator Hosni Mubarak and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and for failing to speak out for Coptic rights in the country plagued by sectarian divisions. Coptic Christians comprise 10 percent of the Egyptian population, and as such are the largest Christian minority in the Middle East.

Syria

Heavy clashes erupted early Monday between Syrian security forces and armed defectors in the wealthy and highly secured neighborhood of Mezzeh in the capital of Damascus. According to activists and residents, it was the most intense violence in Damascus since the beginning of the uprising over a year ago, and also particularly surprising coming in the area located near the security force headquarters and homes to many diplomats and United Nations offices. A member of the opposition activist network the Revolutionary Leadership Council said: "Some people came to Mezzeh and they are trying to attack Mezzeh residents. They are calling them names and taking them out of their houses...The security forces are all around the place." The number of dead has been disputed, but at least 18 Syrian troops were injured according to the British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The fighting came after three deadly bombings over the weekend -- two in Damascus that killed up to 27 people and injured 97, and a car bombing in Aleppo that killed 2 people and wounded 30. The blasts were slated by Syrian authorities as "terrorist" attacks, but activists maintain they were staged by the government to discredit the opposition. Meanwhile, a team of peacekeeping and mediation experts have arrived in Syria to work with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad on implementing the proposals of United Nations and Arab League envoy Kofi Anna.

Headlines  

  • Four people were killed including a teacher and two of his children after a gunman opened fire outside a Jewish school in Toulouse, France.
  • An American teacher was shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Taiz in an assault claimed by the al Qaeda-linked group, Ansar al-Sharia
  • Amnesty International has accused NATO of failing to adequately investigate or provide compensation for air strikes committed in Libya that aided in the overthrow of Muammar al Qaddafi.
  • Thousands of Iraqis demonstrated on Monday in the southern Iraqi city of Basra in a peaceful protest on the anniversary of the 2003 U.S. invasion.

Arguments & Analysis

'Scarce water resources will drive life-and-death politics' (Afshin Molavi, The National)

"For Arab countries, water scarcity has certainly arrived. Middle East and North African states have the least renewable water supply per capita of any region, and are considered to be one of the highest "water stress" regions in the world. With some 5 per cent of the globe's population, the Arab world has less than 1 per cent of the world's fresh water. For a region rich in other natural resources, water is not one of them. This brewing water crisis will have diverse effects in different countries, ranging from the possibility of near-term humanitarian crises in Yemen and drought-affected North African countries, to the long-term slowing of development in the GCC." 

'Iran, domestic tension and foreign policy' (Omid Memarian, Open Democracy)

"The embattled Ahmadinejad thus faces a struggle to survive even until the end of his term in office. But as head government he still holds two powerful cards: Iran's booming oil revenues (partly as a result of the threats of attack) and access to the intelligence ministry. He has insinuated several times that he has information potentially damaging to the supreme-leader's supporters, which he could reveal if necessary. So Ahmadinejad could retaliate in kind if (for example) he is accused of corruption or if he or or his inner circle are put under extreme pressure. The probability of continued tension between president and supreme leader -- where (for example) the president seeks to obstruct any major political decisions taken by the supreme leader or groups under his oversight, especially in areas such as Iran's nuclear programme or its foreign policy -- is a recipe for paralysis until the end of Ahmadinejad's term."

'To save Israel, boycott the settlements' (Peter Beinart, New York Times)

"When Israel's founders wrote the country's declaration of independence, which calls for a Jewish state that "ensures complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex," they understood that Zionism and democracy were not only compatible; the two were inseparable. More than six decades later, they look prophetic. If Israel makes the occupation permanent and Zionism ceases to be a democratic project, Israel's foes will eventually overthrow Zionism itself. We are closer to that day than many American Jews want to admit. Sticking to the old comfortable ways endangers Israel's democratic future. If we want to effectively oppose the forces that threaten Israel from without, we must also oppose the forces that threaten it from within."

--Tom Kutsch & Mary Casey

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