The Middle East Channel

Arab League monitor mandate on Syria ends

Arab League monitor mandate in Syria ends

The mandate for the month-long Arab League observer mission to Syria is set to expire today. The head of the mission is expected to present a report on the observations and status of violence associated with the government crackdown at an Arab League meeting on Saturday. Although the official mandate will expire, there are provisions for an extension given the consent of both Syria and the Arab League. While the Syrian government has welcomed an additional month extension, the Syrian opposition has called for greater action and for a U.N. Security Council intervention. The mission has been highly criticized as ineffective and even as a means for President Bashar al-Assad to buy time and continue regime violence. Over 600 people are reported to have been killed since the beginning of the observer mission, including 33 children, according to Human Rights Watch. Russia, a longtime Syrian ally, said it is committed, along with China, to block any U.N. military intervention.

Headlines  

  • Iran warned its Arab neighbors not to get "dragged into a dangerous position" by allying with the United States as tensions increase over sanctions and Iran's nuclear development.
  • Ayad Allawi, leader of the Sunni-supported Iraqiya bloc, will end a parliament and cabinet boycott if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki agrees to a dialogue and honors a power-sharing deal.
  • Yemeni militants, with alleged ties to al-Qaeda, said they will withdraw from the town of Radda if several prisoners are released
  • Settlers clashed with Israeli forces during the dismantling of an illegal outpost of six wooden huts outside the Mitzpe Yericho settlement.
  • A French Senate panel rejected legislation that would make it illegal to deny Armenian "genocide," however the bill will come up for a vote by the full Senate on January 23.
  • In a controversial trial, Moroccan anti-monarchist rapper, El-Haqed, was convicted of assault in a case many consider a testament to the lack of real change brought about my the country's new consitution and government.

Daily Snapshot

Thousands of Turkish people march to the offices of Armenian newspaper 'Agos' during a commemoration ceremony for slain journalist Hrant Din ,in Istanbul, on January 19, 2012. Dink, one of the most prominent voices of Turkey's shrinking Armenian community, was killed by a gunman on January 19, 2007. The 52-year-old Dink, a prominent member of Turkey's tiny Armenian community, campaigned for reconciliation but was hated by Turkish nationalists for calling the World War I massacres of Armenians a genocide (MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty Images). 

Arguments & Analysis

'Post-BICI Bahrain: between reform and stagnation' (Kristian Coates-Ulrichsen & Elham Fakhro, Open Democracy)

"Bahrain finds itself poised at a profound juncture over the next month. It can either move toward deep and lasting changes to the balance of power between state and society, or the regime will have to rely on the use of force against an increasingly determined opposition. The challenge for the government is overcoming memories of the previous cycle of repression (during the 1994-99 uprising) followed by partial promises of reform (2001-10). The longer the old elite remains untouched by high-level calls to account for the abuses of power over the past year, the harder it will be to convince sceptics of the government's good faith." 

'Israel's Orthodox Jews debate mainstream involvement' (Matthew Bell, The World)

"The Haredim -- as Israelis refer to the Ultra-Orthodox -- only make up about 10 percent of the population. But it is one of the fastest-growing segments of society, due in large part to high birth rates. There are a whole host of issues at stake, from military service to work force participation to gender segregation in public places. The Jerusalem neighborhood of Mea Shearim is an Ultra-Orthodox stronghold. It's a place where the Israeli police tend to keep a low profile. An example of why came on Sunday. As uniformed police officers moved into the neighborhood to arrest several suspects on tax evasion charges, dozens of men dressed in the traditional Ultra-Orthodox style -- long black coats, big beards and black hats -- confronted the officers in the street. Scuffles broke out when Haredi tried to block traffic to protest the arrests."

'Jordan's sphere of influence' (Suzanne Kelly, CNN)

"But exercising one's influence can be a tall order for a small country in the midst of a volatile neighborhood. Just look at Jordan's neighbors: Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. In Syria, Arab League monitors have failed to stop the killing of those who are rising up against President Bashar al-Assad. King Abdullah was the first Arab leader to call for the Syrian president to step down and the monarch still isn't overly hopeful that change will come anytime soon. "I don't see Syria going through many changes. I think what you're seeing in Syria today, you will continue to see for a while longer," he said. "It's a very complicated puzzle and there is no simple solution. If you can imagine Iraq being a simple solution to move Iraq into the light a couple of years ago, and it's different in Libya, so it has everybody stumped and I don't think anybody has a clear answer on what to do about Syria.""

The Middle East Channel

Yemen's Stalemate

Yemen seems trapped in an endless political stalemate. More than a year after massive protests erupted challenging the 33 year old regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen seems no closer to achieving a meaningful political transition. The deadlock has persisted despite the outrage over regime violence against civilians, splits at the top of the military, a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the violence and calling for a transfer of power, a Nobel Peace Prize for leading Yemeni protest figure Tawakkol Karman, and the near assassination of Saleh himself. In the absence of a political solution, the humanitarian situation has dramatically worsened and regional conflicts across the country have intensified. Is there any hope for Yemen?

On Wednesday, January 25, from 12:30-2:00 pm, I will be hosting a POMEPS panel discussion at the Elliott School of International Affairs on Yemen's political stalemate, featuring three political scientists with deep experience in Yemen and very different specializations: Stacey Yadav, Sheila Carapico, and Laurent Bonnefoy.  When I chose the title "Yemen's Stalemate" for the panel a few months ago, several people commented that this seemed gloomy. I would have loved to have been proven wrong, but here we are. I hope many of you can attend; a video of the event will be posted later. The post which follows is the introductory essay to POMEPS Briefing #8: Yemen's Stalemate, which can be downloaded here

There is no doubting the astonishing resilience, creativity and courage of the Yemeni protest movement. The protestors gathered in Sanaa's Change Square, including Nobel Laureate Tawakkol Karman, represent some of the best and most inspirational of the activists of this past year's Arab uprisings. It is astounding that they have maintained their energy and kept up their numbers despite massive regime brutality and dim hopes of political success. But they have also struggled to put forth a clear political alternative, and as Stacey Yadav has argued, have been badly served both by the "opportunistic opposition" of tribal leaders and regime defectors and by the traditional opposition parties of the Joint Meetings Party (JMP). They have proven that they can not be silenced, but seem as stymied as anyone about how to break the deadlock. 

The poorly conceived transition plan pushed by the Gulf Cooperation Council and backed by the United States and the United Nations has proven to be an impediment to meaningful change. It offered immunity to Saleh as an inducement for his departure, but the Gulf states showed little interest in promoting any real democratic change. The GCC plan left the role of the armed forces and other state institutions untouched, and made no provisions for a genuine role for the protest movement. Even so, Saleh failed to sign the agreement for months, instead stalling for time and taking every opportunity to divide and weaken his opponents. In September he returned to Yemen unexpectedly and retook the reins of power.

Many hoped that Yemen would finally move forward when Saleh unexpectedly signed the GCC deal in late November. But instead, as most Yemenis and analysts expected, he has continued to exercise power from behind the scenes. He shows no sign of actually living up to the promise to depart the scene and allow Yemen to move on. The immunity from prosecution guaranteed to Saleh by the GCC deal -- and recently extended to all government officials who have served him -- outrages many Yemenis. It has provided neither justice nor a political transition. Instead it has rewarded a culture of impunity and given Saleh a blank check to kill.

The presidential elections slated to be held in February are widely seen as a sham, even if they are not postponed, wired to simply ratify the elevation of Vice President Abd Rab Mansour al-Hadi and maintain Saleh's power behind the scenes. Such elections do not seem likely to either satisfy the protestors or remove Saleh and his regime from real power. Saleh's family members remain entrenched in key positions in the security apparatus. Meanwhile, as Abdul Ghani al-Iryani noted in December, Saleh and his regime continue to stall, divide the opposition, and play on Western fears of al-Qaeda.

The costs of this political stalemate are enormous.  The mounting humanitarian crisis is reaching staggering proportions. Secessionist sentiment in the south is rising rapidly, while the Houthi rebellion in the north remains potent. Reports of al-Qaeda seizing strategic towns are likely exaggerated, but the jihadist organization is clearly taking advantage of the chaos to build its presence. Real power is devolving to the local level as the political center remains frozen. The absence of legitimate political institutions raises the risks of a complete collapse into civil war. 

The international community, including the United States, has only intermittently paid attention to Yemen -- an oversight which will haunt it for years to come. The U.S. too often has been focused on counterterrorism and the struggle against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to the exclusion of other issues. This has led too many officials to view Saleh as a necessary partner, rather than the key part of the problem which his regime is, and to trade off the right to carry out drone strikes for real pressure for political change.  Even where those tradeoffs are not consciously chosen, the sheer complexity of the problem and the crush of other regional crises has made it difficult for the U.S. or the international community to act.

In September, Tom Finn asked whether there was "any way out for Yemen." More than four months later, it is difficult to argue that we are any closer to achieving the meaningful political transition Yemen so desperately needs. At this point, Saleh should be given a deadline to leave Yemen or lose the amnesty promised by the GCC deal (the blanket immunity recently approved by the Yemeni cabinet for all government officials should be rejected completely). The assets of Saleh and regime officials should be frozen and a travel ban imposed until real change is achieved. But even such steps will not be enough without fashioning new Yemeni political institutions which can respond in a meaningful way to the demands and the needs of the protest movement and the diverse regional groups which have so powerfully challenged decades of Saleh's autocratic rule. Too much time has been lost already.

MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/Getty Images